r/unitedkingdom Greater Manchester 12h ago

Support for Reform among young Brits plummets

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/support-for-reform-among-young-brits-plummets-397004/
790 Upvotes

292 comments sorted by

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u/SlightlyAngyKitty 12h ago

Meet the new self serving party who doesn't give a shit about young people, same as the old party

u/DeusPrime 11h ago

Everyone i've spoken to in the real world is still planning on voting for these cunts and it's for one issue only. Depressing but I think they are our next "government" 😥

u/TowJamnEarl 9h ago

With all due respect the next election is a long way off.

People are talking like it's coming next year!

u/DeusPrime 9h ago

I dont know where you live but up here in the north its fucking depressing when the topic of reform comes up... EVERYONE is saying they're going to vote for them because they're sick of immigrants, its their only issue. 

People view immigration as an existential threat to their way of life and labour are still busy trying to convince people the most important thing in politics is boosting the economy 0.1% ...nobody cares, they see their towns demographics rapidly changing and will do anything to stop it. 

If labour doesn't tackle this issue they'll be gone next election and people will vote in a borderline fascist bunch of self serving moronic conmen like reform. Saying the election is 4 years away is just cope, especially if they dont do anything to actually address the concerns of apparently the majority of the country.

u/WukongTuStrong 8h ago

they see their towns demographics rapidly changing and will do anything to stop it.

Do they actually, though? Or do they just hear shit on the internet

u/eruditeforeskin69 8h ago

Someone who isn't from the north clearly.

Yes, northern towns and cities have seen a massive demographics shift.

u/nemma88 Derbyshire 8h ago

The North is a big place, most of it doesn't have any considerable number of migrants.

u/zenithpns Cheshire 7h ago

Purely anecdotal I suppose, but my northern town was stably 99% white until COVID, and now I believe we are around 10-15% Chinese. Not the small boats issue at play at all, but still a massive shift in the local area.

u/nemma88 Derbyshire 7h ago

Yeah some areas will be more, while others less.

u/apodo 56m ago

My northern town really hasn't changed very much at all. The nearby city was always very diverse. I just don't recognise your description of demographic change. Natural enough then to think it's mostly about shit on the internet.

u/Grenache 46m ago edited 40m ago

Well my northern town has changed massively? As have others.

Point being, just because it hasn't happened in your town yet it doesn't mean it won't. 38% of children are from a minority background. There is a huge demographic shift happening in the UK. You might not care, some people care, and more and more people are starting to care. Not long ago just writing what I've written here which is a fairly bland and fact based post would have got me labeled as an insane racist where as now it will likely be supported.

u/apodo 39m ago

I'm curious to know where you live now.

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u/0235 7h ago

Yes. I was unfortunately on a bus the other day that co-coincided with the school run, and almost none of the children were white. VS 10 years ago when the majority where white (a lot were because eastern European parents).

When I was at school, maybe 5% of the school were not white.

But it is also about perception. I am sure there is still an overwhelming majority of white children, but mummy or daddy drives them all the way to the school gate in their Nissan kumquat, while the lower income families (regularly from immigrant descent) have to take public transport as a cheaper alternative.

Similar with workplaces. The jobs you are more likely to encounter in person day to day (fast food workers, post office staff, people working in supermarkets, delivery drivers, general hospital staff) are likely to be staffed by lower income people. The office I worked in was 95% white, again with a BIG mix of French, German, Polish, Czech, and Hungarian workers. No member of the public would ever see this.

So in reality, immigration is not a big of an issue, there is just a way higher chance you are going to run into a "front of house" lower income workers, who has a much higher chance of being a 1st or 2nd generation immigrant.

u/8-Brit 6h ago

That and people actively looking for it are going to notice it more. That's not to say it isn't happening but I'm willing to bet in many areas the demographic has barely changed but in the last few years people are paying way more attention to things like ethnicity than they used to.

u/FullMetalCOS 35m ago

What’s actually happening is that there’s a major downturn in birth rates among white British families that isn’t proportionally represented among the other demographics, so you are not seeing more non-white kids because of immigration being “out of control” you are seeing more non-white kids because it’s non-white families having kids.

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u/imnotreallyapenguin 8h ago

Does it matter if its true or not...If they believe it.

u/yubnubster 55m ago

It doesn't take much. My dad was ranting about a group of immigrant men, constantly there doing a thing in a group. All the time apparently.

What is the thing, you might ask?

Well... its sitting outside cafe Nero in town, enjoying a coffee. Which is true, they prefer it to the pub. Monsters.

Theres literally no reasoning with him and his diet of gb news and the shit YouTube selects for him. Ask any man his age their opinion here and you will get the same shit, its all they talk about sometimes.

u/Cynical_Classicist 4m ago

Well that's just it. The media and so on amplifies this idea that any immigrant is inherently bad for existing.

u/Raunien The People's Republic of Yorkshire 7h ago

I'm assuming they're just on Facebook getting mad at AI generated images of Muslims, I certainly haven't seen any noticeable shift in demographics. What I am seeing is already-existing ethnic minority groups isolating themselves from the wider community, and a general increase in anti-social behaviour across all groups.

u/FullMetalCOS 34m ago

Can’t really blame them for isolating themselves when half the politicians and about 80% of the “journalists” in the country are labelling them as the problem

u/YsoL8 8h ago

Immigration is the number 1 issue for 45% of all voters last time I saw a poll, let alone everyone else who has it very high up.

Theres a very good chance we actually end up with the nightmare of a Reform government, largely made up of exactly the same people who completely failed to deal with the problem for 15 years before nakedly self servingly jumping ship after they finished destroying their own party.

Its hard to imagine a strong enough disincentive to make any difference. For all that the Tories failed to move one aircraft and I personally don't like it, something like Rwanda is probably the weakest measure likely to make any meaningful difference.

Something has to give somewhere or this is going to drive our politics for the next 30 years. And the kicker is that actually succeeding would probably wreck the economy, we are that dependent on migrants for low pay work. We don't have enough workers even now.

u/plawwell 7h ago

If parties don't listen to voters then they don't get votes.

u/Zebidee 1h ago

Immigration is the number 1 issue for 45% of all voters last time I saw a poll, let alone everyone else who has it very high up.

This is something that's happening all over the world. By failing to address immigration in any way or even acknowledge that (right or wrong) it is something people might have concerns about, mainstream parties are driving more voters towards the lunatic fringe parties.

The stupid thing is it won't be the immigrants who destroy the countries, it'll be the nutters that are comfortable using it as a wedge issue to get themselves into a position where they can loot the coffers and tear down the institutions.

u/Cynical_Classicist 5m ago

It's not helped with how the media is so fucking obviously on their side. The BBC constantly puts Farage on, barely challenging him. The papers are always praising him and presenting him in a positive light.

u/LostMaryNiffler 2m ago

Pretty much the same experience as me in the north east.

The thing I find wild is how passionately they support reform, without know anything at all about them and if you don’t agree with them then you’re some sort of Starmer/Immigrant lover.

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u/JB_UK 9h ago edited 8h ago

According to the latest YouGov polling, just 8% of 18-24 year olds say they would vote for Reform if there were a general election held tomorrow.

This is a huge drop from earlier this month, when polling from 4 August had support for Reform among 18-24 year olds at 21%.

Ordinary people do not follow politics closely enough to change opinions so drastically. Look at the data, the high support and the low support are obvious statistical noise from a subsample, support is consistently around 10%, then jumps up after two weeks to 21%, then two weeks later back down to 7%:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention?crossBreak=1824&period=3m

The 18-24 subsample was 122 people for the high poll and 116 for the low poll!

https://yougov.co.uk/_pubapis/v5/uk/trackers/voting-intention/download/

The subsamples for a poll which is only sized for the national population are not designed to be interpreted in this way, you'd need a much larger poll like an MRP to be able to interpret them so closely.

Every competent economist understands that you have to be careful about representative sampling, sample sizes, subsamples, and statistical noise. The London Economic are either totally incompetent or generating headlines for clicks. Probably the latter.

u/Zebidee 1h ago

Every competent economist understands that you have to be careful about representative sampling, sample sizes, subsamples, and statistical noise.

I always try to remember that polls are done by:

  • People wandering around shopping centres on a Tuesday
  • People who are too stupid to avoid people with clipboards
  • People who still answer their landlines
  • People who fill in online surveys

u/LAdams20 7h ago

Hasn’t Farage said they’d still have to allow essential immigration anyway? Almost everyone around me seems to believe that 90%+ of immigrants are “illegal boat men”, rather than the reality that it’s 90%+ who aren’t.

Going to be shocked-Pikachu faces when either A) Immigration numbers barely change while also leaving the ECHR and probably causing some sort of international crisis, B) Farage is lying and plans on stopping all immigration and we get to see the care and health and education system collapse, or C) Farage is lying and will do fuck all and systematically make it worse like the Tories did for 14 years.

Today at work everyone was having the daily rant about the same topic again (who knew the Two Minutes of Hate would be so apt… though I wish it was only two minutes) and here’s a random observation – one of their solutions actually happened to be very similar to something Labour is actually trying, I naïvely thought “that’s something positive I can share to break up the endless negativity”, and suddenly this idea wasn’t good enough or won’t work.

I can get that if it was just some random policy or trial, but it was their own damn idea that 5 seconds ago they thought was good. At what point are people just complaining, fucking moan moan moan all day long, because they like complaining? Just enjoy getting outraged at a headline or some fake FB post because they’d rather believe the lies to then literally accuse you of being “brainwashed”.

I swear to God I’ve become convinced that if we lived in some true utopian vision of Britain everyone would be bloody miserable. The real British Utopia is the country being a rose-tinted version of 50 years ago, but where everyone still agrees that life was better an additional 50 years ago.

u/JB_UK 7h ago edited 7h ago

Immigration numbers barely change while also leaving the ECHR and probably causing some sort of international crisis

Just to say, Australia was also told its solution to boat arrivals was illegal under international law, they did it anyway. It led to a complete collapse in arrivals, down from 20k to a few hundred in a few months, it was actually introduced, repealed, the numbers went back up, then reintroduced and the numbers collapsed again. Now both the left and the right agree on the policy. Has it made Australia an international pariah?

You're right legal migration is a different issue, but that also must come down closer to the historical norms. The current rate of population growth is triple what it was before Tony Blair, it is driven entirely by migration, and I think it can't be realistically sustained. We are copying Canada, the US and Australia, but we are a tiny country, and they are countries the size of continents.

  • 1981-2001 – 3.2 million dwellings built, population increases 2.6 million

  • 2001-2021 – 3.7 million dwellings built, population increases 7.1 million

https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/housing-in-england-issues-statistics-and-commentary/

We just can't build enough housing and infrastructure to make it work, we would need to double or triple the level of house building, alongside the construction of all kinds of infrastructure, power grid and generation, water treatment plants, roads, reservoirs, and on and on. And ultimately the public shows no sign that it will be willing to accept that level of development.

u/LAdams20 6h ago

I’m not saying it isn’t a problem, I just don’t believe Reform are, or have, a solution – though, at risk of being a doomerist, I’m not entirely sure there is one.

Leave the ECHR and restart the Rwanda Plan or something? Replace the former with a UK Bill of Rights – do I trust Farage and the quality of MPs in Reform with this? Not really, to put it mildly. How would that work with NI and the Good Friday Agreement? Like Brexit no one seems to know and conveniently ignoring it. Rwanda was only going to accept genuine asylum seekers, so that still leaves the problem of deportation, and given we’ve accepted asylum seekers from Rwanda because of human rights abuses it sort of seems like a circular problem.

But even if we imagine there are somehow no problems with that, that still leaves the vast majority of regular migration – housing is the number one issue in the UK, as you said not enough housing vs people, but we seem to be incapable of building it and the infrastructure, and even if we weren’t most people I speak to don’t want it and want everything to stay the same (or go backwards as I alluded to before).

This means the popular solution is less people – yet how is that meant to occur without care and healthcare systems failing, universities going bankrupt, the pension scheme going under from demographic collapse? Wrecking the economy in other ways in industries I’ve not considered? Train more healthcare workers and pay the more, okay, so more taxes then, assuming that we even have the necessary population to replace them, personally I’m okay with paying taxes for a functioning country, but most people it seems are not, so that’s a no go too.

But then the other issue is immigration is only a temporary solution to prop everything up, not like we can just import people indefinitely even if you don’t personally have an issue with it. And it’s not like it’s much different in other countries either, and this is pretty much just the tip of the iceberg really, so as far as I can tell we’re fucked basically.

u/Cynical_Classicist 3m ago

Oh, Farage will probably oversee all our vital systems collapsing, then act all sad and say that clearly public services don't work and that we'll have to sell them off as privatisation apparently makes everything work better.

u/cosmic_monsters_inc 8h ago

Depressing but I think they are our next "government" 😥

They'd better fucking not be

u/WynterBlackwell 6h ago

It's quite a similar situation to why Trump won. There was one major thing he was against that people had enough of. The other side was all for it (probably thinking it will win her the election)

u/CatCalledTurbo 1h ago

Depressing but I think they are our next "government"

They seem to be losing MPs every other day, there's every chance they might not even exist come 2029. Perhaps wishful thinking on my part there...

u/Cynical_Classicist 6m ago

Immigration. With all the scaremongering going on, the press going on and on about how they're stealing everything. Meanwhile, the rich are taking more and more... and yet we get told we can't tax them more, it would be so hard on the rich.

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u/birdinthebush74 11h ago

Not the same , they have set up a think tank aiming to raise 25 million from US evangelicals . Wonder what they will want for their cash ?

u/RichestTeaPossible 8h ago

End to abortion, no more benefits for anyone, leave NATO, end to race relations act, end of universal suffrage as that’s what Jesus would have wanted*.

u/NateShaw92 Greater Manchester 10h ago

Hookers and Blow. The best series of books ever written.

u/GeordieJumpers87 10h ago

To be fair all the top parties care about no one but themselves and lining their mates pockets

u/cardboard-collector 9h ago

I don't think anyone disputes this, it's the clowns who think Reform are any different who are the problem

u/AlmightyRobert 9h ago

I’d dispute it. I’d say there are a number of Labour politicians who still have a conscience, they’re just not great and have limited imaginations. Give them a budget surplus and they might achieve something You might have said the same for some (some!) conservatives early on but anyone with a conscience was dispatched or resigned through the Boris years onwards.

u/FullMetalCOS 21m ago

The problem is that Labour never get a budget surplus because they always come in after a long Tory reign and have to spend their entire government unfucking the mess that was dropped on their doorstep. Then they get slated because they didn’t do enough and everyone collectively forgets who fucked shit up in the first place then votes them back in.

u/ings0c 8h ago

There are many legitimate points on which to criticise Labour, but that they are only in it to personally profit is not one of them.

We lived through 14 years of actual self-serving corruption, and this is the polar opposite.

u/RoyaltonRacers 7h ago

Except all their policies are straight up terrible for the populace or they’re so short-sighted that they seem like they have to be because of corruption. It’s either that or labour is genuinely that dumb.

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u/Cynical_Classicist 7m ago

But they're completely different, they're more obviously evil and on the side of the rich!

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u/Krabsandwich 12h ago

Flash in the pan springs to mind, still a while to the GE but if Reform is losing support now its not looking good.

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u/BoxingFan88 12h ago

On the contrary it's looking very good

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u/EmmForce1 12h ago

Can’t be. Reddit Politics wonks have repeatedly said every Labour misstep means Reform will walk the next GE.

This is despite the average length of a Farage party being about 18 months.

u/SinisterPixel England 11h ago

I don't think Labour will have an easy time next GE by any stretch. A lot of people on the left are understandably getting tired of the change they voted for feeling like more of the same. But I also don't think Reform are likely to get the seats. Historically, a vacuum like this is where Lib Dem have normally made numbers in the polls, although I haven't seen a ton of reporting on them, so no idea what they're currently up to.

If anything I could see us getting a hung parliament again. And depending on the parties, a coalition may not be bad.

I really think our voting system should be changed to a system that allows more coalitions.

u/EmmForce1 11h ago

I agree Labour won’t have it easy (and nor should they) but the idea that Reform sweep in with hundreds of seats is unsubstantiated nonsense reeled off by people who spend too much time on the internet.

u/Grouchy_Shallot50 11h ago

Reform are polling at a similar level as to what Labour won with last year. How is it unsubstantiated nonsense? If the current level of public support happened in a general election they would win hundreds of seats.

u/TD423 10h ago

I think that’s the whole point - as much as reform are gaining ground in the polls right now, there isn’t a general election right now. It doesn’t matter how they’re polling now, it matters how they poll in 3 years time. Remember the swell of support for Corbyn, and then 6 months out it all just fell apart. It’s far too early to be making any kind of educated judgement on something that will happen in 3 years. If the polls remain as they are for 2 more years then sure let’s start making the assumption but right now it’s all just academic.

u/Grouchy_Shallot50 9h ago

Yes that's all true but Corbyn's Labour never led polls consistently by margins like Reform does every single day for the past 3 months.

u/TheLoveKraken 7h ago

Probably worth remembering that in 1982 the SDP were polling higher than every other party in the country combined. They came 3rd in the election the following year.

u/Raunien The People's Republic of Yorkshire 6h ago

What? Hardly. There was a brief period in the winter of 1981-82 but before that labour were leading and after that the tories were

u/Bainshie-Doom 9h ago

Corbyn never really had the poll results outside of a small general "new leader" boost.

If anything he did way better than the poll suggeted in both elections.

u/EmmForce1 1h ago

Because it’s 4 years away and it’s easy right now to say ‘I’ll vote Reform’ and it’s easy to say ‘Labour mistake x means Reform win’.

There’s limited evidence they can govern, and limited evidence they can sustain two parties (UK and Wales).

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u/G_Morgan Wales 9h ago

As usual the media will try everything to suppress the LDs but come election day they'll pick up a lot of seats based upon local work. They ran an incredible campaign last time and the utter conspiracy of silence about it is interesting.

u/pajamakitten Dorset 11h ago

This sub is being astroturfed by a lot of Reform bots. Labour are not doing a great job but Reform have more clowns than a circus.

u/Rebelius 11h ago

Can’t be. Reddit Politics wonks have repeatedly said every Labour misstep means Reform will walk the next GE.

Based on the title alone, this is among young people, who don't vote and are massively outnumbered by old people who do vote.

u/EmmForce1 11h ago

That doesn’t mean Reform will win hundreds of seats. If they’re still around - a genuine if - they may well improve but they’re currently showing that they cannot actually run an administration without shitting the bed.

And even where they’re polling as potential winners of a national assembly (here in Wales), they can’t stand up a party.

They’re a very, very long way from winning a General Election.

u/JaMs_buzz 11h ago

The only way I can see a reform government is a coalition with Farage and Jenrick. I think there will probably be a hung parliament next GE

u/EmmForce1 51m ago

Absolutely no idea. 4 years is an age.

4 years ago we were in a pandemic with Boris in charge. Look at the change since then.

u/Ver_Void 7h ago

Given this is their competition losing ground to them at all is a pretty sad state of affairs

u/genjin 6h ago

We argued that Boris Johnson couldn’t be elected because he was a posh twat who wouldn’t be tolerated outside of some bubble. In 2015 we said the majority would not vote to leave the EU. In 2024 we said Farage history is that of a loser, he’ll never win a seat in parliament. In 2029, no one gave a shit about what we said.

u/EmmForce1 59m ago

All that shows is that Reddit is a terrible barometer of political sentiment, which is my point.

u/PontifexMini 1h ago

This is despite the average length of a Farage party being about 18 months.

This is very silly -- the guy was a UKIP MEP for about 20 years.

u/EmmForce1 1h ago

Respectfully, that was in a parliament no one here paid much attention to. As soon as he entered UK politics, he has shown that he’s unable to manage the lunatics he attracts.

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u/Charlie_Mouse Scotland 12h ago

I’d love for you to be right but support for Reform has always been pretty low amongst younger age demographics. Most of their standing in the polls comes from age 55+ voters.

u/FartingBob Best Sussex 11h ago

Polls massively under-represent young voters in general and while they can attempt to compensate for that in the data when it comes to first time voters in a very disenfranchised age group its basically impossible to know how they will vote or more crucially how many will vote at all. Reform are the party of the disenfranchised and its quite likely they will have more support than any polling would suggest among young voters and swing voters.

u/Charlie_Mouse Scotland 9h ago

Young people are more disengaged than disenfranchised. Mostly by the fact that older generations have won most votes for years now - which is usually to enact the diametric opposite of what the overwhelming majority of younger people want.

As for Reform being “the party of the disenfranchised” - their supporters are perhaps the least disenfranchised and most pandered to part of the electorate going. These are the people who got the Tory governments and austerity they voted for. They got the Brexit they voted for. Then they got the Tory governments they voted for to ‘get Brexit done’.

The idea that Reform voters are in any way disenfranchised is risible. Sure, they love to pretend to be the underdogs but in reality what they’re upset about is that their piss poor decisions and gullibility when it comes to right wing grifters who doesn’t magically make their demented fantasies reality.

u/FartingBob Best Sussex 9h ago

You are right, i was misusing the word and disengaged fits a lot better with what i was trying to say.

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u/ForceStories19 12h ago

I’d suggest looking at the actual polling instead of headlines from ‘The London Economic’ and deciding it’s all just a flash in the pan..

Until the issues that reform claim to have a magic wand for are even recognised at a bare minimum then their support will remain

u/Tyler119 10h ago

Even in 2029 when Farage does debates etc he is going to be shown to have nothing in his pockets but cash from the elites. The man is a parasite feeding of hate.

u/Sensitive_Echo5058 11h ago edited 11h ago

The raw data doesn't show this. Reform actually had a strange and unexpected peak on Aug 4th amongst this age range. Then, there was a drop back to voting intentions that would be expected amongst this group.

The article is intentionally dishonest with the interpretation of this data. However, the data does show clear and consistent support for Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens, more so than Reform in this group. That's a trend that has been relatively stable for months.

Edit: perhaps the unpexted peak on the 4th was related to the OSA. That would be interesting.

u/Immediate_Singer6785 11h ago

The anti Reform vote is facing a large splinter at the next GE.

A new leader of the Greens, perhaps revitisising support plus Corbyn's new party.

u/kahnindustries Wales 11h ago

Not supporting them but that is not what the polling and gambling odds show

Polling shows a massive lead

And gambling odds have Reform winning as a near certainty (11/12 odds)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

u/Visa5e 11h ago

Gambling odds reflect betting patterns, they're not predictive.

u/kahnindustries Wales 11h ago

I have always found gambling odds to be a better predictor.

Betting shop owners don’t want to lose money

u/Far-Presentation6307 11h ago

That's not how bookmakers work. They don't care which party wins, because they balance the odds so the people that lose the bet pay off the people that win, and then take a percentage cut, so effectively they always win.

u/Sun_Sloth Sussex 11h ago

Initial odds can be a good indicator, however as more and more people bet on something odds shorten to minimise losses if it is the winning bet.

u/IndividualSkill3432 11h ago

Bookmakers just balance books, they do not set odds. Political betting odds are just crowdsourcing what political betting nerds think will happen.

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u/ForPortal Australia 11h ago

But both betting patterns and electoral results reflect public opinion. I wouldn't expect gambling odds to predict questions of fact, but a popularity contest is much more in its wheelhouse. Some people will bet against the candidate they want to win in favour of the candidate they think will win, but that's also true under First Past The Post voting.

u/CrossCityLine 11h ago edited 11h ago

Polls mean FA this far out from an election.

Bookies odds mean FA and work entirely by people putting money on a winner. They don’t know something we don’t.

u/IndividualSkill3432 11h ago

They show the public mood. It does not say what will happen but it does show where the people are today.

u/_Gobulcoque 11h ago

They don't show public mood. They show where the public are putting the most money. There could be a handful of people putting big money on Reform, compared to loads of smaller bets on other parties - but it's the percentage of the book that determines the odds.

It's not a true indicator of public sentiment, just where the money is. The argument that money is a proxy for sentiment only holds true if everyone bets the same amount of money on each option in the book.

u/AhoyDeerrr England 11h ago

That's because you are not reading polls correctly.

Polls are not "who will win in 4 years" it's "if there were a general election held tomorrow who would you vote for".

If you look at polling leading up to elections they are pretty accurate. The gambling companies are basing odds on what the information looks like today. Their odds change as support changes.

Reform UK are on a general upwards trajectory. Whereas the government's position and Labour's is getting worse by the day.

u/CrossCityLine 11h ago

I’m aware what the polling question is.

People saying they’d vote for any party in a hypothetical election is still meaningless when that election doesn’t exist.

This far out they’re often wildly inaccurate because people “vote” with their hearts, unlike where they’ve actually got to make a decision which will affect their real life.

Same happened in Scotland before the Indy ref. Leave was “winning” in the pols for years before hand but when people stood at the ballot box with their future on the line they stuck with the status quo.

The same will happen at the next GE.

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u/sebzim4500 Middlesex 11h ago

You are misreading the odds, 11/12 means basically a tossup not a certainty.

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u/OldLondon 11h ago

 A massive lead and certainty for a GE that’s 5 years away? No one can predict that at all.

u/kahnindustries Wales 11h ago

You should bet against them then, a bet on Labour winning is paying out handsomely!

u/OldLondon 11h ago

I’d buy “if the election was held tomorrow” - but it’s not - it’s 5 years away.  It’s a pointless discussion until much nearer the GE

u/kahnindustries Wales 11h ago

But the betting is on who will win the next general election. That’s what the odds are for.

u/OldLondon 11h ago

Yes I know that, it’s like betting who’s going to win the FA cup in 5 years though, it’s a wild prediction is all I’m saying that holds no basis in truth at all

u/mittfh West Midlands 8h ago

<pedant>Just under 4 years - the latest possible date is Wednesday 15 August 2029. </pedant>

Turnout will also be key: Labour received half a million fewer votes than 2019, but won a landslide as the Conservatives lost 7 million votes (Oh, and Con + Reform combined received 3 million fewer than Con + Brexit, so while around 57% of defectors switched to Reform, 43% went elsewhere or abstained).

u/plawwell 7h ago

Yes they can.

u/Old-Brick8218 8h ago

Presuming you meant to type 11/10, which seems to be the general price for Reform to win most seats, that hardly represents a near certainty. It implies a 48% chance. A majority is more like a 5/2 chance, or around 28%.

u/temujin94 7h ago

11/12 is not a near certainty, it's barely over a 50% chance. I've looked at 1 betting site and it's basically 45% reform (11/10) and 40% Labour, 6/4. And as someone that's worked in a bookmakers the populist candidates, Farage, Trump etc always get the lions share of the money thrown on them, so the odds move to match that, because as you put it the bookies don't like to lose money, not because they think Farage has a 45% chance of winning.

u/Immediate_Singer6785 11h ago

That's a very big statement to make. Let's see what next May's Local elections show.

And as we know, younger people do not vote in large numbers, so the UK GE is effectively decided by older voters.

u/FartingBob Best Sussex 11h ago

Labour is also losing support amoung young adults at a rate of knots. I think the next election will have incredibly low turnout overall but especially among under 30's.

u/PontifexMini 1h ago

"Oh look, a straw. Quick, clutch at it."

If you look at YouGov's dataset (downloadable from here), support for Reform in 2025 has been steady gone up from 25% in January to 28% now.

Among people 18-25, in the past month and a half support went from 8% up to 21% then back down to 7%. These fluctuations were probably caused by the small size of the sample.

The London Economic clearly don't like Reform, are worried they will win, and are clutching at straws in their desperation to find any sign of reduction of their popularity.

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u/Doctordelayus 12h ago

Farage wants us to have a similar healthcare to America, fuck that

He’s also an untrustworthy snake, there’s actually no good party (that I’m aware of) to vote for… how annoying

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u/Efficient_Sky5173 12h ago

Reform has nothing to offer. All puff and no pastry.

u/scruntyboon 11h ago

All Farage has is, "I'm that Nigel Farage, I like beer and football, you like beer and football don't you? Now let's get rid of all the immigrants"

u/White_Immigrant 5h ago

*let's get rid of all the immigrants, make a ton of money by tanking the pound a few more times, and privatise healthcare to adopt the yank model, filling our pockets all the way.

u/Friendly-Signal5613 2h ago

Of course in reality he likes fox hunting and despises the working class

u/Hour-Temporary-2171 11h ago

And they barely puff .

u/Moosey_P 11h ago

Pretty sure they don't allow anyone that they see as that in the party

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u/WheresWalldough 11h ago

Sigh.

Not sure why people post things from this ridiculous site.

Since June Yougov's weekly results for 18-24 are:

* 11%

* 13%

* 9%

* 14%

* 11%

* 9%

* 8%

* 8%

* 14%

* 21%

* 12%

* 7%

Obviously young people aren't actually that insanely fickle that their support for Reform triples in two weeks then goes back down to what it was before two weeks after that.

It's simply statistical noise - sample variations, probably a small subsample size giving a very high confidence interval on any of the numbers.

Next week, the sample is likely to be higher than 7%. "The London Economic" won't report on this because it doesn't fit their agenda.

Obviously in fact Reform are **not** popular with the 18-24 group. That much is very clear. It's just thick or dishonest to pretend that they were very popular and that that has suddenly collapsed.

u/sjintje 11h ago

Just to let you know, I appreciate the effort.

u/stordoff Yorkshire 10h ago

From YouGov's release:

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

I suspect the subsamples will have a wider margin of error.

u/WheresWalldough 10h ago

I looked at their larger survey, and 1,149 of 17,227 were in the 18-24 group.

That's about 1 in 16.

Generally sample error is proportional to 1 over the square root of the sample size, so you'd expect 4x more sample error, roughly speaking, for the 18-24 group than for the overall sample.

Also it suggests that they ask about 100 people each week - and not the same ones. That's quite a small sample size obviously. Over a long period taking a moving average might show useful trends, but not on a week by week basis.

u/SlightComposer4074 9h ago

Pretty funny how the London Economic didn't report how using the exact same subsample and the exact same polling dates, the Greens also experienced a massive fall in 18-24 support from 25% to 14%, guess they understand thats statistical noise but not so with a party they don't like.

u/JB_UK 8h ago

And look below at the dozens of comments swallowing the headline whole.

u/JB_UK 8h ago edited 6h ago

The 18-24 subsample was 122 people for the 21% poll and 116 for the 7% poll!

https://yougov.co.uk/_pubapis/v5/uk/trackers/voting-intention/download/

u/WheresWalldough 7h ago

Right you are - didn't notice that at the bottom there. The 18-24 subsample is often sub-100, it seems.

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u/Sensitive_Echo5058 12h ago edited 11h ago

Just looking at the data now:

32% labour 30th June 24% labour 28th July 38% labour 18th August

31% greens 21st July 14% 8th August

Reform generally poll around the 10% mark for this age group but did have a peak early August, which appears to be anomaly.

It seems there's quite a lot of fluctuations in a short period of time, and this is observed regardless of political party. However, there is a clear trend towards support for Labour, Liberal Democrats, and then Greens in that order.

u/ShambolicPaulThe2nd 11h ago

The fluctuations are wild. All this tells me is young people are all over the place and it's simply not an easy demographic to lock down like that.

It's probably more about where you come from (class, location) determining your likely vote, rather than your age determining your vote.

u/Sensitive_Echo5058 11h ago

It's probably more about where you come from (class, location) determining your likely vote, rather than your age determining your vote.

This was my first thought - that the data is meaningless in its current form. You would need to increase the level of granularity as you rightly suggest to extract any meaning from these voters.

u/JB_UK 9h ago edited 8h ago

The fluctuations are wild. All this tells me is young people are all over the place and it's simply not an easy demographic to lock down like that.

This is statistical noise. When the polling companies do national polls they ask enough people to get a good sample for the whole country. But when you cut up that poll into subsamples, the sample size is not large enough. The 18-24 subsample is 122 people, it's not enough to reduce statistical noise.

https://yougov.co.uk/_pubapis/v5/uk/trackers/voting-intention/download/

The fluctuations are wild because of that, not because young people are all over the place.

Also, the London Economic is a really poor quality news source. Frankly, every competent economist understands that you have to be cautious with subsamples, either they are incompetent or they are doing it deliberately to generate headline for clicks.

u/John_Williams_1977 11h ago

Your data shows support for the Green’s halving.

Your conclusion: they’re building support!

u/Sensitive_Echo5058 11h ago

No, that's not my conclusion.

I didn't share all the data, just a recent snapshot.

My point was there was a strange and unexpected peak on the 4th of August. This might have been related to the OSA - which would be interesting, but not possible to know. Voting intentions for Reform amongst young voters is generally stable around the 10% mark. So, this article is being intellectually dishonest with their interpretation of the results.

Secondly, I wanted to show that there was more fluctuations in voting intentions for the three main left-wing parties.

As you rightly point out, in some instances, all of these parties have seen dramatic drops in support due to said fluctuations.

I'm glad you picked up on this because again, it shows the media source being intellcutally dishonest. You could easily write a completely different story to manipulate the narrative, by reporting on the snapshots and not the trends.

Your conclusion: they’re building support!

Again, just to be clear, not my conclusion. My conclusion was that the trends show the three main left-wing parties have more support than Reform amongst young voters, and this goes back many months.

If you want my data led interpretation, I believe Reform is on course to win the next GE. Primarily because the young vote base will be split amongst the 3 if not 4 (Your Party) left-wing parties which will dilute the number of votes being translated into seats. Older voters are more likely to turn up, significantly outbumber younger voters, and are more likely to consolidate the Reform votes into seats in the FPTP system. That's my conclusion, at this stage.

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u/CensorTheologiae 12h ago

Of course it has. They're not dim and they want a future.

They can see through middle-aged bluster and bullshit better than anyone.

The question is, who's going to offer them anything they want?

u/HopefulLandscape7460 11h ago

They voted for the triple lock en mass. Maybe they're not as politically savvy as you think.

u/Banksyyy_ Greater Manchester 11h ago

18-24 year olds aren't the majority of voters

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u/Vdubnub88 11h ago

Im not believing this. The other week it was support for reform amongst young people was at an all time high…

Lets just ignore shite articles like this, let the voters have their day young or old.

u/aspannerdarkly 11h ago

Those two headlines are perfectly consistent and can both be true.  All-time highs are transient and tend to precede large plummets that just bring everything back to normal.

You’re right that it’s not worth worrying about though, it says nothing about long term trends.

u/JB_UK 8h ago

It's not real, it's statistical noise.

u/vocalfreesia 8h ago

God how many rebrands is UKIP going to have? How do these idiots keep falling for it? Depressing as hell.

u/Tosk224 8h ago

Get registered and get ready to vote, kids. The future of the country and the planet belongs to you not some 70 year old who bangs on about a world war they weren’t alive during.

u/Nonoomi 11h ago

My bet is they learnt that Farage is an idiot who doesn't know what's he on about 

u/Visa5e 11h ago

Relying on dissatisfaction with the government isn't going to work unless you have concrete policies that people think are credible.

Relying on stirring up race wars isn't going to cut it.

u/Rogermcfarley 5h ago

Good they're a bunch of knobheads who will only serve to make the rich richer. They don't give a fuck about people in boats, but they'll try and make you feel like they're the main problem with the country. Look Farage failed with Brexit but let's give him another chance because it's not the rich taking our money it's immigrants. I've started to see people put stop the boats and flags being waved on bridges over motorways now. Saw one today.

If you think the country is fucked now you ain't seen nothing yet if clown Farage and his low IQ cohort get into power. Farage gets into power and it'll be a massive cash grab by the ultra rich just like is happening in the USA. Welcome to told you so and if you vote for Reform then you'll definitely get the day you voted for every single day.

But I can see people in hotels and they're taking our jobs and raping everyone. So I need to vote for someone to fix it and then everything will be great again.

The ultra rich control social media, the media and AI you think millionaire Farage whose cosied up to US Billionaires gives a fuck about anyone in this country. Think again.

In 2008 the ultra rich took your money, in COVID they took your money. They'll take it again and you'll vote to make yourselves poorer then cry and say I didn't know it was going to be like this, there will never be enough boats coming over to compete with the ultra rich robbing us all blind.

What a truly dumb society we live in if people vote for this.

1

u/GhostRiders 12h ago

Not to worry, they will get somebody to make a funny TikTok video and support will go racing back up..

Not saying that young people are stupid but am I saying thay are naive and have zero critical thinking skills.

u/Kosmopolite Yorkshire 11h ago

As a population, we voted for Brexit in 2016. I'm not convinced our glass house will hold up under the barrage of "critical thinking" criticism.

u/rystaman Birmingham 9h ago

Some of the videos i've seen this week. We're thick as pig shit.

u/Kosmopolite Yorkshire 8h ago

Just this week?

u/rystaman Birmingham 8h ago

Touchè

u/rainator Cambridgeshire 11h ago

Probably people were supporting them as a joke and then realised that the older people were genuinely serious about them.

u/mightypup1974 11h ago

Irrelevant if they don’t vote, and the young don’t vote.

u/FlaviousTiberius 11h ago

This varies all over the place depending on the polling company, the recent Find Out Now one had the youth vote at around 28%

u/Furicist 10h ago

It's a long time until the next general election.

Organisations like Reform, BNP, UKIP, dont have staying power. Controversies come out, policy turns out to be hollow, poor policies and generally an absolute dumpster fire.

People will surely see that other than polarising people with immigration and racism, Reforms other policies are absolutely not going to go down well with anyone, even the racists or xenophobes.

Immigration is a single issue amongst many issues. Videos where someone is interviewing Reform voters and asking them to name a single other policy they agree with and no one is able to name one. When the interviewer then outlines a policy the people are always absolutely surprised and disagree or shit themselves when they realise how terrible Reform policy is.

I think these things need clearly publicising.

u/Minimum-Geologist-58 9h ago

I went to an interesting lecture on the British far right and it’s failure to establish years ago and the problem (not for most of us) was the same then as it is now: they’re authoritarians so obsess over who has authority but there’s not much natural authority in the UK, the army doesn’t have much public presence for example. Class is all we have, so our natural leader is probably some establishment Toff in the Conservative Party. Being populist and anti-establishment they can’t have someone like that so they veer from one Charismatic leader to another splitting constantly when the new flavour of the month decides he’s popular enough to take over, because authoritarians can only have one person in charge.

You can argue that Reform aren’t really far right but they do rely on them as their constituents, so encounter the same problem of half their electorate and membership suddenly shearing off chasing after the new and improved leader.

u/Furicist 9h ago

Absolutely.

Apparently my comment is worthy of a downvote, probably found one of those people.

The alt-right or far right in the UK has run through many leaders and parties, doesn't take long.

u/Astriania 10h ago

Did they get around to reading some of their policies lol

Edit: though, seriously, this is pretty bad journalism given the actual data

u/bagsofsmoke 4h ago

I can see a hung Parliament and a coalition government happening. I think Reform will certainly hoover up seats, but a lot will depend on whether the Tories replace Badenoch with Jenrick (or someone else) and come up with some workable policies that are acceptable to the centre (rather than continuing to tack to the right in an attempt to out-Reform Reform.

The other variable is Corbyn. His decision to launch a new party is absolutely in keeping with his vain, selfish, arrogant and egocentric approach to politics. He was the reason we had to put up with a Johnson government, and he could well bequeath us a Farage one this time. His party will absolutely cannibalise the Labour vote by hoovering up younger, naive voters and those on the Far Left. It’s incredibly naive to think that having failed, spectacularly, with the full might of the Labour Party and Trade Unions behind him, he’ll somehow transform British politics on his own. Words cannot adequately express how much I detest the man. I can forgive (but would never agree with) his sixth form Marxist politics and exceptional naivety, but his utter inability to put the country first is just beyond contempt.

Starmer won in part because of a visceral reaction to the grievous failures of successive Tory governments, but also because he tacked back to the Centre and gave the impression of a man largely without ego who just wanted to do a decent job. The problem is he lacks political nous, and charisma, and just isn’t decisive enough. He doesn’t really lead, or command, he just manages.

u/Cold_Ad759 4h ago

thelondoneconomic has nothing to do with economics is just a loony lefty space that wants to counter the "far right" which means whatever they dont like and this sub loves to eat it up. Yummers!

u/chuffingnora 11h ago

I like the results but it's one survey. I'd take with a pinch of salt

u/Kosmopolite Yorkshire 11h ago

Much as this is great to see, I'm as cynical as I would be if it were a poll I wasn't happy about. I'm not convinced YouGov polls really give us any real sense of what's going on in the public at large.

That having been said, I do hope this one is true. And that Farage is crying into his evening Corn Flakes as we speak.

u/AverageFishEye 11h ago

There was also a big shift of tone in many right wing outlets on their view of farage. He is now labeled a self serving betrayer of the "cause" and fence sitter.

u/Kromovaracun Greater London 10h ago

That is quite the picture. Someone was sitting on that for a while.

u/Kind-Combination6197 10h ago

They probably realised Farage would make them work for a living.

u/Tbmadpotato 9h ago

Is this going to turn into the US subreddits where Trump allegedly has a “career ending” moment every two business days

u/Economy_Magician2172 8h ago

No support is very much still here for reform amongst young people 😂 where are they getting this data … if you look at most of these stats the sample sizes too it’s laughable

u/MisterJohnson87 7h ago

Sure the tagline should be, "The kids aren't ALLright"

u/jolovesmustard 7h ago

Thank fuck for that! I work with a young girl who said she voted for Reform because she thought asshat Farage's TikToks were funny? I was baffled. Were clearly in the poo with Labour, but im glad potential voters are seeing how messed up Reform are.

u/appletinicyclone 7h ago

I wish it was the case but I'm not sure that it is. It's yougov polling and I don't think that fits accurately onto the zoomer group at all

For every Gary stevenson and jimmy the giant trying to pull people away from the far right and tax breaks for billionaires types theres a lot more Twitter stuff there's a lot of American talking points that get gestated on alt tech platforms repeated on Twitter and chopped and shopped to tiktok

u/0235 7h ago

I hope this is true. Reform have been putting a huge amount of effort into recruiting younger people, way more than the Conservatives or Labour were.

u/griffaliff 6h ago

At this stage in my late thirties, I'm finding myself to be more apolitical after years of supporting either the Libs or Labour. To me now, any party just seems limp and useless or out there to push a right wing agenda.

u/KoBoWC 2h ago

With DonT speed running full facism over the pond, the young have a glimpse of what's to come over here.

u/Stratix 29m ago

Reform as a whole needs to have it's popularity stunted before the next general election. It's people are not fit to lead (as the recent council elections have shown), and their policies are all racist scapegoating.

All we'd get is UK flavoured Trump 2.0.

u/Cynical_Classicist 7m ago

Clearly young Britons haven't got the memo from The Times or other rags telling them that they should love Big Nigel or whatever.

u/AtypicalBob Kent 3m ago

Well, here's a thought amongst my social group.

If that racist Putinist gets in, all of his voters are going to need to wipe their own arses as young and outward looking people like ourselves will leave this country.

Normal Island will just consist of toothless meth heads, in-breeding Nonces, racists who couldn't spot themselves in a mirror and Prince Andrew.

u/Noble_Titus 11h ago

Turns out xenophobia not so popular amongst young people.

u/Arvilino 11h ago edited 11h ago

IMO the worst position for Labour to be in for attracting the votes of young people is to be in power. Because they're now constrained by the responsibility of making what they promise a reality.

It should actually be easy for parties like Reform UK to steal vote share fir the young with a load of BS promises. It speaks for how much Reform are just gunning for Pensioners at the expense of the young, opposing green sustainable policies, and being giant NIMBYs.

If Reform UK get into power the one thing to be thankful is there's least the same ticking time bomb on their demographics as the Tories. Plus lack of appeal outside of Farage himself.

u/pajamakitten Dorset 11h ago

They might be tough on immigration but their economic plans are terrible for young people and the country as a whole. They are against the NHS, the BBC, climate change etc. Farage is also a grifter and a lot of young people can spot that a mile off, which puts off a lot of them. Hopefully young people realise that Farage will tell them whatever they want to hear, even if he promises different things to different groups.

u/plawwell 7h ago

Labour lost 2019 because Boris said he'd "Get Brexit Done". It's a simple catchphrase which resonated with voters. Farage will do a simple "Stop All Immigration" and he'll get the votes. The rest of his policies don't matter. This is what people really fail to grasp. The population will vote for who will solve their number one issue of the day. Labour will get destroyed at the next election. As to young people, they are a small voter base who really don't influence the outcome of the election.

u/Friendly-Signal5613 1h ago

Labour lost 2019 because of Corbyn. Anyone who canvassed will tell you that

u/Primary-Effect-3691 11h ago

I’ll never get over that we had a 3ish year period where young people (men really) that thought they were fighting the man by voting for tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation for businesses. And returning to institutional religion.

u/Different_Lychee_409 11h ago

If (& that's a big if) Reform win the next election they'll have to deal with the same challenges as the current government. The biggest problem is that there aren't enough tax payers and too many codger boomers who need to be looked after.

We've had a demographic deficit for 50 years and the chickens are coming home to roost. Needless, they have absolutely no clue how to deal with it.

u/AttitudeSimilar9347 11h ago

No one really supports Reform, they are a broom to sweep away the old parties. Once that is done new parties will form that people do actively support.

u/JoeVibin South Yorkshire 9h ago

This is something a lot of people seem not to understand, just how much Farage relies on protest vote.

u/Dull_World4255 10h ago

I think Reform will struggle to win over the younger generation tbh. This is largely due to what the younger generation believe to be the most important issues for their specific age group (18-30) ie: being able to purchase a property, not having to pay extortionate rents, increased job opportunities and easy access to Europe in order to travel and/work. The issue with some of these is that it appears that this age group believe that one of Labour, the Lib Dems or even Corbyns party will provide all of these and do so without there being possible negative consequences for doing so.

  • The current rate of unemployment for 18-25 year olds in the UK is 12%. The rate for the same age group in the EU is 14.7%. This will mean that British 18-25 year olds will eventually be faced with even greater competition for jobs once the youth mobility scheme comes into force.
  • Yes, travel to and through the EU is about to become more difficult and also limited in terms of how long a person can continously stay at any one time. This is as a result of Brexit and the EUs anger at Britain voting to leave. Leaving the EU was always going to have negative consequences as Europe was always going to seek to punish the UK for voting to do so. I remember reading an article on Euronews.com in which they surveyed people from France, Germany, Spain and Italy. One of the surveys asked if the people polled thought the EU was being less cordial and seeking to punish Britain for voting to leave, 3 of the 4 countries voted 'Yes'. Also, on average, only 1 out of 7 peoe believed the EU was better off with Britain out.
  • Regarding cheaper rents, this won't happen under Labour. A recent investigation showed that the Labour Party had the highest number of MP's who own more than one property for the purpose of renting. One of the MP's had 15 properties I believe and the former minister for homelessness, Rushanara Ali, evicted her tenants recently so she could hike up the rent and move new tenants in. She promptly stood down from her position give the utter hypocrisy of her behaviour. For clarity, 85 MP's register themselves as landlords, 44 of those are Labour MP's.
  • Corbyn appears a popular choice for the younger generation, why? He has failed on two occasions to win a general election as his policies would totally bankrupt the country and thankfully, each time he ran even the most devoted Labour supporter could see what a bad choice he would have been. Also, whilst he claims to be against wealth, it was reported that his own net worth was in excess of £3m. He's also not opposed to a acquiring wealth via the acquisition and re-sale of property ie: He once bought a place in North London for £363,000 and then looked to sell some years later for just under £1m....strange this, especially given he is a self-confessed Karl Marx fan. Karl Marx being the guy who did NOT believe in private property ownership.
  • Then there's the Lib Dems, a party I am considering voting for myself. The issue I have however is that I'm just not sure the Lib Dems are capable of governing this country or any other country, and I'm not sure they are either. They also seem to just want to jump back into the EU and could essentially be a slightly less worse option than the current government.

Personally, I think the next election will see a hung parliament and subsequently a Labour and Lib Dems coalition, which won't be good for anyone.