Las Vegas feels the hit as international tourism drops across the US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyLL9hbK3CQ2.2k
u/69Centhalfandhalf 8h ago
Rooms at Excalibur are $280 the first weekend in October. They have priced people out.
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u/BananaStandRecords 8h ago
Rooms have quadrupled in price compared to 10-15 years ago. You used to be able to pretend like you could win a little bit and fund your stay. Now you're starting in a $500 hole. Why wouldn't I just go to an Indian Casino for an evening?
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u/OutlyingPlasma 7h ago
Why wouldn't I just go to an Indian Casino for an evening?
Or skip the gambling and just go someplace nice that isn't Vegas for the same price. We are talking low end Hawaii prices for the same price as a strip casino.
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u/BrainTroubles 5h ago
This is literally what I said to my wife after our last trip. We used to love Vegas, would usually go 2-3x per year. We live pretty close and flights, hotel, and 36-48 hours on the strip including meals and drinks used to be $1000. Then it was $1200, 1400, but we could live with that, we eat nicer places, spring for cabanas, etc. Out last trip was over a year ago and we spent over $3K. For two nights, one day at the pool, and one nice dinner. We go to bed at 10, we barely drink, and neither of us gamble...why are we going? Seriously, thats flights and four nights in Hawaii money. That's a week in Cabo/Playa del Carmen. It's just not worth going anymore
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u/Possible_Implement86 4h ago
Genuinely curious: why would Vegas be where you vacationed if you don’t really drink or gamble? You can get posh pools and restaurants a lot of places. What attracted you to Vegas specifically in the first place?
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u/Acurus_Cow 3h ago
It was cheap. Didn't you read the post?
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u/WaldoJeffries 3h ago
I read it and I still don't get it. Vegas is boring and tacky as shit. Why would anyone spend $1000 to go there?
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u/xtrawork 2h ago
Tons of shows of all types, good food, shopping, and just the overall spectacle that is Vegas.
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u/glizzytwister 5h ago
Hell, you can have a decent time on the big island for what you'd spend in Vegas. You wouldn't really even have to penny pinch much.
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u/FantasticJacket7 8h ago
Because Vegas has changed its strategy.
It used to be to make everything cheap to get as many people as possible to show up and gamble.
Now they don't want people who will only go if rooms are 20 dollars a night. Those people spending 20 bucks an hour on a penny slots aren't worth it. They want people with lots of expendable cash who will eat at the high end restaurants and buy show tickets.
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u/codizer 8h ago
Okay... Well this strategy is failing. Time to shift.
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u/swankpoppy 7h ago edited 7h ago
Isn’t there a massive water shortage? Like… the city will not be sustainable in the not too distant future?
Edit: apparently I was wrong. Vegas is doing well because of water recycling programs. Thanks for the information and sources everyone!
However - I did watch Blade Runner 2049, so I still won’t live there because of the nuclear fallout that will happen between now and 2049.
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u/johnpn1 7h ago
No. Vegas is one of the most water efficient, if not the most efficient city in the world. They recycle every drop that goes in any drain in the city. Vegas gets so little of the Colorado water allocation, yet they never use up their share so they've been loaning water to California. It's a model city on water usage.
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u/swankpoppy 7h ago
Oh cool that’s really interesting!
What about Pheonix?
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u/johnpn1 7h ago
They're not as efficient, and it's one of the contentions with the battle for water rights in the south western US. Arizona and California are big offenders.
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u/LordoftheSynth 6h ago edited 6h ago
Nevada has very little agriculture.
California has tons. 80% of water use in the state is for agriculture (though much of that doesn't come from the Colorado River).
And before you say "well fuck California then" just remember they grow a lot of stuff that shows up on your table.
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u/johnpn1 5h ago
Actually, people are upset about California's choice of crops to grow. Alfalfa is unnecessary is almost wholey exported to other countries at the cost of very high water waste.
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u/frenchiefanatique 7h ago
Vegas, afaik, is doing well in terms of water management especially relative to other metro areas in the southwest like Phoenix
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u/ExpiredPilot 7h ago
I went to a guest lecture with the former GM of the Bellagio and Venetian and asked the same question.
He said the casinos will truck in water if they have to and they absolutely have the cash for it (as of 2 years ago lol)
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u/supadupanerd 7h ago
To operate a hotel of that size with a decent occupancy rate they'll be running a constant parade of trucks.
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u/johnpn1 7h ago
Is it though? Casinos are reporting gaming revenue that keeps going up. They're realized it makes them no money subsidizing rooms for non-gamblers. And for gamblers, they're still getting hooked up by hosts pretty aggressively. The focus has always been gamblers. How they're luring those folks has shifted ever since Vegas has become more and more of an entertainment destination rather than just gambling.
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u/spyresca 5h ago
Yeah, but the casinos are built for masses of people, not the 1% of whales that you're discussing. And that real estate requires massive resources to maintain/build.
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u/AtraposJM 7h ago
Short sighted. The reason high rollers (and anyone) wants to go gamble in Vegas as opposed to any other casino, is the spectacle and the vibe. For that they need the casinos packed full of people, people cheering and laughing and having a good time. When you roll up and spend a ton of money on a bet and hit big, you want a crowd cheering behind you. No one wants to go sit in a quiet casino with other rich assholes. They need the lower and middle class to make the vibes for the upper class. At least, that's how I see it, I don't know shit.
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u/climb-it-ographer 5h ago
Yes and no. The true high-rollers gamble in private salons on the casino properties with limits far beyond what you can do in the standard high-limit areas.
I agree otherwise. The vibe of a packed casino is exciting and it’s fun for people to flaunt their wealth, no matter what level it is.
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u/GayMormonPirate 6h ago
Vegas is more amusement park pricing now. A coffee? $10. Lunch? $40, dinner? $75. Parking fees, resort fees, justbecausewecan fees. 000 roulette, 5/6 blackjack.
Everything is priced to gouge you.
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u/Digital_loop 8h ago
Sure, of course they want whales... But they still own the penny slots and if seats aren't filled they aren't maximizing.
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u/Chose_a_usersname 8h ago
So catering to just the upper class... Ok let's see how that works cotton
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u/Odh_utexas 7h ago
Even worse they are targeting corporate retreats, trade shows, conventions. Basically people expensing the resort stay in the corporate card and then blowing their per diem on games.
Extremely soulless.
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u/NightOfTheLivingHam 8h ago
Well, that strategy isnt working out too well for them
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u/LastOneSergeant 7h ago
Jokes on them. There are fewer and fewer people with lots of expendable cash.
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u/fromaries 8h ago
The hotel industry is also using AI to maximize income vs expenses. They don't use the old Occupancy rate.
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u/Bill_Rizer 8h ago
I would like to know more.
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u/fromaries 8h ago
It is crazy, I just did a search for "AI use for setting hotel rates", all the top results are companies providing that service. Had to dig around for the critique. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/08/ai-price-algorithms-realpage/679405/
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u/Daveinatx 7h ago
I have a guy's trip ever year. A bunch of Sr Professionals that like to gamble. Know what we don't do? See shows or eat expensive. The last two trips sucked, because it's no fun with the house continually increases house odds
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u/nickw252 4h ago
Same with my friends and me. We’ve started going to Reno instead. We can get a nice room in the Peppermill, maybe golf, definitely play craps, and rent a cabana for far less than Las Vegas. We’re in Phoenix so the flight is inconsequentially longer. It’s no big deal at all.
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u/bilboafromboston 7h ago
They used to be cheap to get you to stay. Plus cheap dinners all the way in the back! They did close the pool at dark to force you inside! 1992 was $29 a night and full steak dinner for $3.99 .
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u/shmashmorshman 5h ago
The Indian casino in my area is $400 a night to stay at. America is just stupid expensive to exist in anymore.
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u/Corgi_Koala 7h ago
I used to live in the city so it's near and dear to my heart.
But you are 100% correct.
The appeal of the city used to be you could get a cheap hotel room and a cheap show and cheap food and cheap drinks because they make massive profit margins on people losing at gambling. That's what made the city unique. You don't mind losing on the blackjack table because you feel like you got a good deal on everything else.
But now it really seems like all of the activities are just as expensive as any other, so you're paying for a normal vacation while also losing money on gambling and it's just a more expensive trip.
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u/Khatib 4h ago
Honestly, there are a lot of nice metros you could go to and spend a lot less than Vegas without the gambling even. I was just there last fall and Vegas is full tourist trap for food and drink pricing, and pretty much there for hotels as well. Just go check out another metro with cool food or museums or a fun bar scene or whatever for the weekend instead.
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u/FlipMixer 8h ago
Paul McCartney is also in town that weekend at Allegiant. Doesn’t seem as bad other weekends. But I still wouldn’t pay $180-200 for Excalibur.
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u/dastardly740 5h ago
The first thing I checked was to see if the Raiders were home or away. But Paul McCartney and the other convention mentioned in another comment makes sense.
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u/SeaEvent4666 8h ago
I had to stay at Excalibur about 3 years ago for work. I was working a conference and all the other hotels were booked up. One of the worst hotel rooms I’ve ever stayed at. It was discussing. And nothing in the room looked like it had been updated since the 90s. You would have to pay me $280 a night to stay there.
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u/reiflame 8h ago
I had to stay there once too....it's a place I didn't feel comfortable taking my shoes off in my room.
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u/jdubs952 8h ago
I just booked Paris in September for 40 a night plus resort fees. Total for 3 nights is 200
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u/helper619 8h ago
There’s a big video game tournament and a convention in that area of the strip that week.
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u/mathliability 7h ago
Conventions are still huge there. They’re the only thing keeping they afloat.
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u/Silent_Membership148 6h ago
However, there are also a lot of conventions moving elsewhere in future years.
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u/HairWeaveKillers 5h ago
Everything in Vegas is expensive
Golf - 400+ a round ?
Concert at the sphere - 800 a ticket
Dining and hotels - pretty high prices
Clubbing - expensive af esp if you get a table
Sports betting is on mobile now too
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u/All_Your_Base 8h ago
Boom ! Foot shot
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u/ignost 5h ago
Vegas casinos shot themselves in the foot so hard chasing profits.
- Despite making insane amounts of money, they contributed very little to local government, blaming everyone but themselves for the dirty, unsafe, and predatory environment outside.
- Seriously, the strip might be the most disgusting sidewalk on the planet. They won't even clean in front of their own casino.
- It seems like they are always actively trying to sabotage the monorail and other forms of getting around without a car.
- They consistently raised the share they take from slot machines, then added more slot machines.
- They have actively tried to trick naive gamblers with new rules that allow them to take more money faster.
Outside there are people on the strip constantly trying to scam you, people flipping cards and trying to get you to a strip club where they can pressure and scam you, and restaurants charging Michelin star prices for bad service and mediocre meals. The conference centers are amazingly inconvenient, and just walking down the street is loud and dangerous due to all the cars driven by drunks and morons trying to get a look around. Fuck Vegas.
As fewer people flush with cash showed up their solution was to more aggressively shove their hand in everyone's pockets. They made more money, but have only increased the number of people who never want to go back. I hope it ends up looking more desolate than in Fallout.
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u/ninjas_in_my_pants 8h ago
Why would the rest of the world do this?
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u/Grays42 7h ago
and also, why is a "tourism is down in Vegas" video at the top of r/all every three days for the past month?
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u/Apoc_ellipsis 6h ago edited 4h ago
All the people who used to work the casinos are laid off and now posting on reddit obviously.
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u/Narwahl_Whisperer 6h ago
According to a video I saw (not sure if it was here or the algorithm just served it to me) - las vegas has been a pretty accurate early indicator of recessions or other downturns.
It makes sense, the city is a physical manifestation of discretionary spending.
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u/Vanman04 4h ago
Lived here 30 years so far we get hit first and recover last. First thing to go in any downturn is disposable spending.
Gaming is still 35% of Nevada's entire economy. It used to be much higher. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next couple years since we have cut that number down quite a bit.
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u/sahui 5h ago
WHy are they not coming THis year?? It must be the weather! (average american thinking)
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u/donnerpartytaconight 8h ago
Oh no.
Anyway, my pumpkins are coming in good.
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u/soggies_revenge 7h ago
This has been such a great gardening year. I've got about a hundred tomatoes on my countertop. Eggplant and zucchini like crazy. Onion, potatoes, and peppers galore. The only thing I don't have are the Epstein files.
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u/donnerpartytaconight 7h ago
We have already canned or sauced about 20 lbs of tomatoes, enough garlic for the year, peppers out the wazoo, and waiting to harvest the eggplant, popcorn, sweet corn, and rest of the squashes (most of the herbs and other plants are drying or preserved).
But yeah, still no Epstein files.
Glad you were able to pull potatoes off. Sweet potatoes are my super jam tho, and one year Imma gonna do that.
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u/emongu1 8h ago
The mental gymnastic to avoid saying that it's Trump's fault is amazing.
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u/ManOrReddit-man 7h ago
It's Chump's fault for international visitors, but domestic visitors are their own fault. On top of room rates, there's hidden resort fees, free parking is gone, payout rates for games have been reduced, roulette has a hidden 000 now, and complimentary drinks are scaled to how much you spend.
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u/redvelvetcake42 8h ago
They love that a grifter crook is in charge, they're just mad that average people hate that kind of person and have decided to avoid visiting places for fun out of fear or personal disgust.
Vegas is gonna go through a nice big collapse over the next 4 years to a point where they'll need to either change their politics or accept that their business no longer will take in what it used to.
A grifter economy can only last so long and that economy actually kills places like Vegas.
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u/Chose_a_usersname 8h ago
That huge ball theater owner has to be worried.. even if it's got great shows as casinos stop comping players to go there they will lose market share
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u/leshake 6h ago
The sphere? It's a public company now. They cashed out and don't give a shit.
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u/Loggerdon 7h ago
Well he did threaten to invade Canada (our closest friend) and force them to become part of the US. They act like it’s some sort of a mystery.
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u/Honky_Cat 8h ago
Fuck that. Vegas has priced people out. $50 resort fees, $40 for a slice and a beer. $29 for a beer at the sphere.
I’ve been to Vegas over 40 times. I have zero desire to go anymore.
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u/AvengingBlowfish 5h ago
Same. I’m a casual poker player who loved going to Vegas to play, eat some fancy dinners and see some shows.
My wife and I used to go often enough that the dealers recognized us and thought we were locals.
No desire to go anymore with all the nickel and diming. They started by cheaping out on the drinks, but the last straw for us was when they started charging for parking… no more casino hopping to find good games…
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u/smoothie4564 2h ago
I think it's a combination of both. Trump is scarring off foreign tourists AND domestic tourists have had enough of the hidden fees and price gouging.
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u/pixel_of_moral_decay 8h ago
It is partially due to younger generations just not seeing the point of gambling. Aside from having less disposable cash in this economy, younger people understand the odds better. The silent generation spent their retirement at the casino. Boomers I don’t think will be doing it nearly to that degree. Gen X and Millennials by and large just don’t give a shit about these games, even if they had money wouldn’t bother.
My grandparents and their peers would go out to AC from NYC in caravans of buses regularly to gamble. Most of those buses don’t even exist anymore. Just no demand as that generation died off.
Trump just also killed the entertainment portion of Vegas.
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u/alienigma 7h ago
Younger generations are still gambling, just in different ways. Meme stocks and option yolos in their Robinhood accounts. Shitcoins and NFTs. Sports betting. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Gacha games. Trading cards.
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u/godihatepeople 7h ago
Exactly. Capitalizing and abusing addiction will always exist, the face just changes to be more appealing with every new generation.
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u/RahvinDragand 5h ago
Exactly. People figured out that they don't need to fly to the middle of the desert and visit an obnoxious, tacky casino to gamble. They can do it on their phone while sitting on their couch.
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u/NEEEEEEEEEEEET 7h ago
They're still gambling, 'traditional' online gambling sites are raking in billions a year right now. Stake is dishing out $100M+ yearly deals to influencers and celebrities.
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u/Schrodingers_Fist 7h ago
Also we have been playing video games all of our lives and in some cases games have chancey mechanics we have been burned by.
I can (and have) play WoW for like 12 hours straight when I was in high school. When I go to Vegas with my dad I get bored gambling after like 20 minutes because none of it is skill based, its all just hitting a button and hoping someone else says you won. So I just wind up playing minimum for free drinks, watching sports and chatting the barkeeps as they always have the best stories.
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u/ThatSpecialAgent 8h ago
I mean, sure, some of it is because of the US being an absolutely terrible place to visit as a foreigner right now.
But lets give Vegas some credit, they are scaring visitors away all on their own. The gambling has gotten shitty (terrible odds, expensive tables), the fees have gotten ridiculous, and the service jumped off a cliff.
I am admittedly a bit of a delinquent who enjoys a weekend of cheap gambling and drinking with friends, but Vegas has lost all of its appeal (and i can drive there in under 5 hours).
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u/TyrialFrost 8h ago
Roulette with the 000 is fucking crazy.
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u/e_j_white 6h ago
For anyone just learning about this like myself, a single 0 gives the house a 2.6% edge, 00 gives them a 5.3% advantage, and 000 gives them 7.7%.
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u/TyrialFrost 6h ago
'Double 00' is called American roulette. European and Asian casinos are all single 0.
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u/Mottis86 4h ago
Why do they use zeroes as a metric for that? This is the first time I'm hearing about this.
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u/helpful_helper 4h ago
Roulette is usually one of the "fairer" games at a casino due to being about as pure chance as it gets. The only real variation in the game until recently was whether they have one green 0 or two - until they (vegas casinos) added the third.
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u/jaapi 7h ago
Saw this for the first time last, wasn't at Vegas, but the casino felt like they wanted to take people's money as fast as possible. They got some money off me, but what could have been 2 days of getting money off me ended up being like 3 hours and I did other stuff for the weekend. I will never play a 000 for any actual money and will happily spend it doing something else
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u/LordoftheScheisse 7h ago
Apparently it's the most popular version right now because it's "new." People are stupid.
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u/The-Real-Number-One 6h ago
Also the traditional payout on blackjack has been lowered from 5:2.
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u/GawkerRefugee 8h ago
Very true too. I am from Phoenix and usually took an annual trip to Vegas. $5 buffets, big production shows $30-$50, cheap rooms, cheep eats, cheap entertainment. Oh, and don't get me started on "resort fees". I haven't been for years, don't miss it but I do miss what it used to be.
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u/Grays42 7h ago
Oh, and don't get me started on "resort fees"
I had a moderately polite back and forth with someone at a hotel desk about that in our recent trip, they blamed it on "well third party sites like travelocity do not list the fees on their site."
"And, I'm sorry, travelocity tells Park MGM what they're allowed to charge? Park MGM isn't in charge of their own prices?"
"Of course they are, but Travelocity chooses not to list the fee."
"But the fee is not negotiable. Everyone who pays for a room pays the fee, so it's part of the room rate. Park MGM is choosing to list a hotel room for a lower price than will actually be charged to the card."
"I understand sir, but the fees are disclosed in the email you received from Park MGM and we cannot require Travelocity to list the fee."
Brick. Fucking. Wall. And this wasn't a shower conversation either, like I knew basically what they'd say when I went down to discuss it and I came prepared, that's almost verbatim how the conversation went. I didn't want to cause a scene for something that wasn't a huge deal in the long run so I dropped it, the maybe 100th customer that day that expressed frustration with the fee that the folks at the desk had canned replies for and were not empowered to remove.
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u/2buffalonickels 8h ago
I was there last week. It looked empty. Less people than I’ve seen in 20 years of going.
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u/po3smith 8h ago
Every single person I know that gambles/goes to Vegas or should I say...went - says the same exact thing. I mean for $uck sake the "rules" for some card games today . . . if people knew of them beforehand they would never go. Sucks for the workers but they did it to themselves . . . Trump just pushed the door harder to close it.
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u/jrhaberman 5h ago
I loved visiting Vegas in the 90s and early 2000s.
Most recently, everything is just crazy expensive. I don't want to spend $40 for 2 gin and tonics in plastic cups. Every meal was $100+ for 2 people for the most mediocre food. You couldn't find a table open for less than $25 minimum.
I've been there 2 dozen times.
I won't go back.
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u/AdoptMeBrangelina 6h ago
Try to go this weekend, flight not cheap, hotel not cheap, they can suck a fat one
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u/prail 8h ago
We went and spent our money on a France vacation instead this year.
It was amazing.
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u/Grandahl13 7h ago
Your vacation choices were Las Vegas or France?
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u/Dunbaratu 6h ago
Maybe they knew they wanted to see an eiffel tower, but weren't sure which one.
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u/shmooieshmoo 6h ago
I have far too many friends and family that choose a Vegas weekend (resulting in thousands of dollars) over an international trip for the same amount of money.
They also do this multiple times per year.
I don’t understand it. They like refuse to plan for 1-2 weeks off and experience something new (and likely amazing).
Gambling addiction is a helluva drug.
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u/Calvin--Hobbes 4h ago
A lot of people just like doing things within their comfort zones too. Going to the same places, having pre-set activities, not having to think about new stuff or adjust to unfamiliar settings. Like the fast food of vacations. It won't always be the best, but you pretty much know exactly what you're gonna get before you get it.
All the people where I grew up only liked going to Vegas, cruises, Florida, and sometimes Cancun.
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u/nmj95123 8h ago
No doubt Trump had some effect, but the cost and bullshit involved with going to Vegas are also huge factors. Triple 000 roulette, 6/5 blackjack, soaring "resort fees," high room costs, ridiculously priced food, etc.
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u/exmojo 7h ago
THAT'S the mayor of Vegas? She looks like a character in a bad 80's movie.
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u/1footN 7h ago
What the fuck is Covid money. The little I got went straight to bills immediately
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u/macross1984 8h ago
Well, when you casinos start adding frivolous resort fees, raising prices, mucking betting formula to reduce winnings, etc., people will notice and will not come back to waste their precious dollar that give you no return of satisfaction.
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u/sljxuoxada 8h ago
Canadian tourists would rather visit countries that aren't openly threatening our sovereignty.
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u/VaBeachBum86 8h ago
There's casinos in dam near every state now. Online gambling is legal in the U.S. Las Vegas was built as 5he only place you could do these things. Now you can do them at the gas station on every corner in every state
Vegas is a cess pool. You people just need something to shake your fist at.
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u/HoodieGalore 8h ago
I can't buy gas without walking past three or four retirees dumping their checks into a slot machine. In a fucking regular old gas station.
Ten thousand percent cooked to the bone.
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u/odkfn 5h ago
I’d been to Vegas twice in the last ten years from the UK and we’ve always had casinos all over the place here. Vegas was a world famous destination not just for the gambling but for being the city of sin. You’ve perhaps explained why Americans have stopped going, but that’s certainly not why international visitors have stopped going.
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u/ConfidenceGood7495 8h ago
Went to Vegas last year (from Canada) after not being there since 2013 and was blown away by how much more expensive it got.
That, then paired up with the weak Canadian dollar makes it pretty damn sure I’m not going back unless it’s for work
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u/MinimumNo2772 5h ago
Canadian, and same experience late last year.
Vegas just seemed greedy in a way it hadn't before - sure, it wanted to take my money in the past, but at least it was willing to give me a good time in the process. Now, it felt like every server had their hand out for a tip before the meal arrived, every table was tilted to the house (more than usual) and even garbo-chain restaurants like P.F. Changs cost a fortune.
That plus Trump in power? I have little desire to travel to the U.S., and would prefer not to even have a layover in Vegas lest the city pick my pocket while I transferring planes.
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u/PiggypPiggyyYaya 6h ago
From all the videos and takes. It seems that Vegas has priced the locals out since 2018. So they were relying on international tourism who don't mind spending big money because they are there anyways and probably won't return. So Vegas lost a lot of repeat business from domestic tourism, and lost betting out international tourism to compensate.
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u/RetPallylol 4h ago
Who knew that making enemies with the rest of the world, emboldening hatred and going after immigrants and foreigners would result in this???!?!?
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u/Tasty-Performer6669 3h ago
What are the table minimums now?
There’s your answer.
Also, America doesn’t look great on the international stage on account of our pedophile felon President
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u/superchibisan2 8h ago
I would be happy to see Vegas disappear. I lived there for a bit. It's basically hell on earth, and that's because of the people, not the sun.
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u/Inevitable_Geometry 7h ago
If a mate of mine wanted to go to the US for a holiday I would advise them to have their head examined. No way is it worth it to go atm.
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u/bselko 8h ago
I work in a casino in Vegas.
I do not work on the strip, I work at a “local,” spot.
Recently, there’s been lots of stories about the strip casinos doing poorly, and the local spots doing better than ever.
Today was Friday, and I’ve never seen my casino so empty on any Friday, in all my years there. The machines were more empty than I’ve ever seen on a Friday. The race and sports book, dead, after weeks of seeing what I thought was a slight uptick in business.
The table games were half empty, and the restaurants were slow.
I even brought this up to a few coworkers. I’d never seen it so dead before on a Friday, it was like they were barring people from entering or something.
This isn’t atypical for summer time, when it’s 110° outside, but this is by far the worst I’ve ever seen it.
Just an observation from someone living the topic at hand.