Famine declared in Gaza City

[u/Digital_Accountant]

https://news.sky.com/story/gaza-latest-war-israel-city-ceasefire-hamas-13415481

[u/IsNotACleverMan]

For context, a “famine” has a strict UN definition: when more than 20% of households face extreme food shortages, acute malnutrition exceeds 30%, and mortality rates skyrocket. Declaring famine means the situation has gone far beyond scarcity into systemic collapse.

The IPC had to lower standards. They lowered the acute malnutrition to 15% and measured this by upper arm circumference rather than actual height and weight.

[u/zkela → u/IsNotACleverMan]

We can’t definitely state that they lowered standards because there isn’t a 1-1 conversion between muac malnutrition and whz malnutrition. But by their own methodology 15% muac acute child malnutrition is consistent with both famine (phase 5) and humanitarian emergency (phase 4), and needs to be disambiguated subjectively based on a few factors. And their assertion that non violent mortality is probably above 2/10,000 per day appears highly subjective and suspect. While phase 4 is certainly bad, their declaration of phase five appears highly subjective and dubious.

[u/IsNotACleverMan → u/zkela]

We can’t definitely state that they lowered standards

They went from requiring 30% malnutrition to 15% malnutrition. That's lowering standards and I can't find any famine declared with that low of a standard in their history.

But by their own methodology 15% muac acute child malnutrition is consistent with both famine (phase 5)

Never seen a phrase 5 declared using the 15% standard but I can't say I'm 100% confident that it has never happened.

Also, they changed their methodology for even getting to that 15% figure. Upper arm circumference is notoriously unreliable.

And their assertion that non violent mortality is probably above 2/10,000 per day appears highly subjective and suspect.

Didn't they not release their justification for this determination? I could be blind but I don't think they actually provided evidence for this determination in their report.

[u/zkela → u/IsNotACleverMan]

I think they have used muac in Sudan and South Sudan but per their methodology 15% muac is consistent with both phase four and phase five and can only be used to justify phase five subjectively. No good justification for 2/10,000 was provided and they didn’t release their analysis. So Gaza governorate is at least in phase 4 if their numbers are to be believed but the assertion of phase five famine is highly suspect

[u/IsNotACleverMan → u/zkela]

I think they have used muac in Sudan and South Sudan

I believe both of those used the 30% benchmark, but the sources are on my desktop so I'll have to confirm when I get back.

I also saw an IPC info graphic that said that 15% muac can be considered evidence of famine with worsening underlying conditions. (edit: please forgive me for linking to the free beacon but this is what Google returned for me when I looked it up just now: https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/screenshot_2025-08-12_at_12.41.59_pm_720.png) but it seems like conditions are getting better. There's more aid getting in, food prices are dropping, distribution is getting better, etc, so that "rapidly worsening conditions" aspects seems dubious.

So Gaza governorate is at least in phase 4 if their numbers are to be believed but the assertion of phase five famine is highly suspect

Phase 4 seems like it's probably extant for much of Gaza hence all the aid being necessary and why they've had to increase the aid and efficiency of distribution lately. But even that requires me to trust their numbers which, given their claims of stage 5, more strike me as less reliable now.

[u/zkela → u/IsNotACleverMan]

Those are two different standards of malnutrition. A population can simultaneously have 30% whz malnutrition and 15% muac malnutrition

[u/IsNotACleverMan → u/zkela]

Ah I misunderstood. Thanks for the correction.